GTA V, Coming March 2013…I Think

Grand Theft Auto 5 is in full development according to Take Two’s most recent financial report. The recently announced GTA game is the first proper game in the series since 2008’s GTA4. Rockstar has not given a hard release window for the game and very few details have trickled out about it. A lot can be determined by their release patterns in recent years. Here’s the release dates for the past 5 major Rockstar titles.

Grand Theft Auto IV – April 2008
Grand Theft Auto Chinatown Wars – March 2009
Red Dead Redemption – May 2010
L.A. Noire – May 2011
Max Payne 3 – March 2012 (expected release)

In 2010, Take Two revised their fiscal calendar to end March 31. As we all know, stock holders and investors have just as much to do with release dates as the developers themselves. In recent years Rockstar has released one major game annually and in the past 4 years it always been between the months of March and May.

Next year’s Max Payne 3, assuming its not delayed will follow this pattern as well. With the fiscal year closing at the end of March its highly unlikely that Take Two would let Max Payne be pushed back any later than that. The only other game Rockstar has announced is Agent. Very little is known about Agent and with Rockstar not shying away from saying GTAV development is in full swing, Its safe to say that its on deck.

With all this data, here are my release window predictions.

Anytime in 2012 = 1% chance
Jan-Feb 2013 = 1% chance
March 2013 = 45% chance
April 2013 = 5% chance
May 2013 = 24% chance
June 2013 = 12% chance
July-Sept 2013 = 8% chance
Oct-Dec 2013 = 3% chance
Anytime in 2014 = 1% chance

Clearly I don’t see it coming in 2012. I think for quality’s sake Take Two will give Rockstar as much time as they need to get it done, but with the fiscal year ending in March I expect it to not come out after March 2013. A March 2013 release would inject alot of cash into the company right at the end of the year and residual sales and DLC support would prop up much of the next fiscal year. If Take Two wants to balance their year over year profits March is when it will be released.

In the event its delayed through March, my money’s on a May release based on historical patterns. Its possible they will try to make it a fall 2013 release especially if Agent makes its way to shelves first. However, If Max Payne gets delayed into the next fiscal year and its a huge hit, my whole chart could be reworked. This also doesn’t take into account other Take Two games, like Borderlands 2, Bioshock Infinite, Spec Ops: The Line and XCOM.

GTAV is one of the most anticipated upcoming titles and one of the most successful franchises in gaming. A lot of factors go into selecting a release date, these are just a few. Hopefully I’m wrong and we’ll be playing GTAV at the end of 2012, but I don’t think I am and I don’t think we will be. In the mean time, if you need a mob based open world game, why don’t you grab Saints Row The Third, I hear that thing is effin’ bonkers.